This study examines the long-term effects of a large-scale public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina between 1993 and 1999, when the federal government funded roughly 186,000 new preschool places in areas with low baseline enrollment and high poverty. Using administrative records linked to four population censuses, the study estimates difference-in-differences models comparing treated and untreated cohorts.
Results indicate that an additional preschool seat per child increases post-kindergarten schooling by 0.5 years, raises secondary school completion by 11.9 percentage points, and boosts post-secondary enrollment by 7.1 percentage points. For women, access to pre-primary education reduces completed fertility. Although little impact on labor-market outcomes is observed at the census date, benefit-cost analysis suggests high fiscal efficiency, with a benefit-cost ratio of 11 and an internal rate of return of 13%.
These findings demonstrate that universal, at-scale pre-primary expansions in middle-income countries can generate substantial improvements in human capital and demographic outcomes at relatively low fiscal cost.